What absence of Pat Cummins could mean for Australia in the Ashes

Australia may be without their captain for the first Test — and England will sense an opening.

With the Ashes set to open in Perth on 21 November, Australia are managing a rare variable: the possible absence of their captain and attack leader, Pat Cummins, due to a back issue. For England, who arrive with scars from 2021–22 but a renewed sense of purpose, the uncertainty around Cummins offers a sliver of opportunity at the very start of a six-week sprint across Australia.

Leadership plan likely seamless — but different
If Cummins does miss the opener, Steve Smith is expected to deputise, a role he has filled smoothly in recent years. Australia won’t panic: Smith is tactically experienced and deeply trusted by the dressing room. Yet leadership style matters in tight Ashes passages. Smith tends to be instinctive and field-placement heavy; Cummins’ captaincy often mirrors a bowler’s rhythm — spell lengths, bumper timing, and the micromanagement of fields for reverse swing. That subtle shift could influence how Australia attack England’s top order in Perth’s characteristically brisk conditions.

Bowling balance without the metronome
Cummins’ unique value is not just wickets but control. He concedes little, builds pressure, and creates wickets for others. Remove that metronome and Australia must find control elsewhere. Scott Boland is the most plug-and-play option: heavy seam, unerring length, and Ashes-proof temperament. Alternatively, an express option such as Lance Morris adds intimidation but can cost runs if lines drift. Either way, Josh Hazlewood’s fitness and Mitchell Starc’s strike role become even more central; Australia might also lean on Cameron Green for longer holding spells to cover the overs Cummins usually locks down.

England’s early-tour window
England’s best chance in Australia has often been the first 10 days of a series, before the hosts click into their groove. Without Cummins, that window widens. Perth’s bounce rewards decisive back-foot play — an area where England’s strokemakers, from Zak Crawley to Harry Brook, can cash in if they settle. Expect England to counter Starc’s new-ball angle by committing to strong off-side scoring options and by targeting Australia’s fourth seamer when spells stretch. Ben Stokes’ declaration instincts may also sharpen: if England sense Australia’s attack is one threat lighter, they’ll keep the tempo high to force selection stress by Brisbane.

Selection and tactics: ripple effects
Australia’s XI shifts slightly if Cummins sits out. Boland in for control keeps the template intact; Morris in for pace pushes Smith to protect boundaries with deeper rings and sweeper fields. Nathan Lyon’s role grows in either scenario: more overs into the breeze, more holding duties to let Starc attack in short, violent bursts. Fielding plans may tilt to catching in front of the wicket early, then ring fields to choke England’s middle overs if the Kookaburra goes soft.

Workload management and series narrative
Even if Cummins returns by Brisbane or Adelaide, early damage (or missed opportunities) lingers in an Ashes. Australia will want to avoid over-bowling Starc or Hazlewood in Perth just to compensate; that’s where Green’s stamina and accuracy matter. If England can stretch first-innings batting to 110–120 overs, they force Smith to expose a part-time fifth-day plan earlier than ideal. Conversely, if Australia find control through Boland and win the toss, the absence of Cummins can be masked by scoreboard pressure.

England’s to-do list
1) Start fast in Perth: positive intent, but with discipline to leave well outside off early.
2) Target the fourth seamer: attack lines when Australia rotate Starc/Hazlewood.
3) Keep Lyon moving: rotate strike to deny him rhythm; sweep judiciously with the bounce.
4) Protect against Starc’s inswinger: left-handers, in particular, must prepare for the late tail with the new ball.

The bottom line
Australia remain formidable at home, even without their captain. But Cummins’ absence — even for a single Test — removes their most reliable pressure valve. If England are to reclaim the urn, they must treat the series opener as their moment to seize momentum, turn Australia’s selection puzzle into a multi-Test theme, and make any Cummins return about rescue, not routine.

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